Thursday Night Football will shift indoors tonight in a matchup between a pair of 7-7 teams that can’t afford another loss as the Los Angeles Rams host the New Orleans Saints as a 4-point home favorite on the TNF odds.
With Kyren Williams transforming this L.A. offense and likely having his way with the Saints defense, is having the visitors in catch-up mode indoors enough to get on these moving NFL odds?
I break down the Week 16 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Saints vs. Rams on December 21.
Be sure to also check out our TNF prop picks and Matthew Stafford odds spotlight!
Saints vs Rams odds
Saints vs Rams predictions
Thursday nights have looked ugly on paper of late but bettors have enjoyed some shootouts and that could continue into Week 16 with an indoor total of 44.5 which I’m taking the Over.
I love the Los Angeles Rams here and I’m likely going to back them at -4, but this is a ripe Over on the short week that could garner some attention and close on the other side of 44.5.
The Rams are a different offense with Kyren Williams in the backfield. L.A. averages 27 points per game when he plays compared to 14.25 when he doesn’t. Since his last return, the Rams have put up 132 points over the last four weeks including games vs. the Browns and Ravens — the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses in EPA/play on the season.
This offense has been a wagon indoors too with Williams getting the ball. The back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry indoors compared to 4.08 outside and he currently ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards despite missing four games. His 95 rushing yards per game is the best mark in football and LA will be able to run (and then pass) vs. the New Orleans Saints on Thursday.
The Saints have ripped off two straight wins and have allowed zero TDs over that stretch but that was also against Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young. They’ll get the No. 2 QB in EPA/play since Week 12 in Matthew Stafford which won’t help especially as they’ve struggled to stop the run of late.
Over their last five games, the Saints are 2-3 SU and have played Josh Dobbs, Desmond Ridder, Jared Goff, Young, and DeVito, Although the Giants managed just 60 rushing yards last week (they were on the short week and had plenty of distractions after the DeVito hype), the Saints’ rush defense gave up 204 yards on the ground vs. Carolina, 142 yards vs. the Lions, 228 yards vs. Atlanta, and 125 to the Vikes.
The league’s No. 1 rusher in yards per carry and yards before contact will eat Thursday and he might get his starting right tackle back in Rob Havenstein who missed last week with a groin injury.
Derek Carr and this Saints offense could be chasing points, which is the best scenario for this Over. New Orleans is one of the slowest offenses with a lead but ranks as the fifth-fastest offense in a neutral context pace of play.
The Saints had struggled earlier in the year in turning drives into six points but have fixed some of those issues of late, having gone 9-for-10 in the red zone across their last three games.
This total could see a bump to the Over if Chris Olave suits up, but as of Tuesday, he is questionable with an ankle injury and missed last week.
Either way, the Rams’ offense will be able to do what they want vs. a defense that hasn’t seen many good offenses of late, can’t stop the run, and is still missing Marcus Lattimore.
If you can get the Rams’ team total Over at 23.5, that would be my preferred play, but this Over 44.5 is also something I’m very high on, and am expecting another big showing from the Rams’ offense.
My best bet: Over 44.5 (-115 at FanDuel) 25% live boost availablePicks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Saints vs Rams same-game parlay
Over 44.5Kyren Williams Over 88.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara Over 29.5 receiving yards
+434 at FanDuel
The best scenario for this is with the Rams playing with the lead and leaning on Williams but the running back has been so important to this offense that he can hit this, even with negative game script. Carr does not have a strong receiving corps right now and if Olave sits, it could be another five-catch game for Alvin Kamara who is 9-2 to the Over on this prop at that number on the year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis
There wasn’t a lot of movement on the spread or total between the look-ahead and the re-open. The Rams sat as 4-point faves with a total of 44.5 before Week 15’s games and that’s where they were up until Tuesday morning.
There looks to be some L.A. money coming in that has moved this to as long as -4.5 as of Tuesday afternoon with the Over starting to get some love with some moves to a flat 45.
The Rams hype is admittedly loud but the Saints have not done anything impressive of late having gone 2-3 SU over their last five games (three at home and all indoors) and have played some of the worst QBs including Dobbs, Ridder, Young, and DeVito. That L.A. hype can be countered with a possible over-evaluation of this Saints team.
The injury report is also working against the Saints. Chris Olave is a true question mark after missing last week and corner Marcus Lattimore and WR Michael Thomas have been ruled out.
On the other side, the Rams are healthier, Cooper Kupp is back and healthy, and starting RT Rob Havenstein is likely to return after Sean McVay told reports he expects him there on Thursday.
This is also a spot where Stafford and McVay are a much better duo than Carr and Dennis Allen. Only Brock Purdy has a better EPA/play than Stafford since his Week 10 bye as the veteran QB started 11-for-11 vs. the Commanders last week and has an 8/0 TD/INT ratio over his last three games.
Kyren Williams is the difference maker in this offense that’s averaging 33 points per game since his Week 12 return to the lineup. L.A. will run the ball with ease Thursday which will set up their efficient passing game, while the Saints play at a much faster pace when trailing as they are one of the slowest offenses with the lead.
The Over could cash with the Saints scoring as few as 14 points.
Saints vs Rams betting notes
- L.A. receiver Demarcus Robinson had a 95% snap share and a 94% route share last week as the Rams run 3-WR sets at an elite rate and Tutu Atwell was out with a concussion. He had just three targets but is becoming a valuable piece of this offense. His receiving total was 32.5 yards last week.
- Williams had a 58% route share and finished with five catches last week and has 17 catches on 22 targets over his last four games.
- The Saints are running three TEs as neither Juwan Johnson, Jimmy Graham, nor Foster Moreau topped a 50% route share. Moreau led the group with five targets in Week 15. Moreau and Graham both had one red-zone target.
- Without Olave last week, this was the route share and target share for the New Orleans receivers: Rashid Shaheed (77%/14%), AT Perry (50%/7%), Keith Kirkwood (33%/3.4%), and Lynn Bowden (43%/17%).
Saints vs Rams betting trend to know
The Saints have scored first in only seven of their last 17 games (-5.95 units / -27% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Rams.
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Saints vs Rams game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, December 21, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime or NBC |
| Opening odds: | Rams -4, 44.5 O/U |
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Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site’s live content lineup.
Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.
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